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William H. Schlesinger
Photo:Jon Gardiner |
At any moment, science gives us its best explanation of
reality. It proceeds by rigorous tests of hypotheses through
observation and experimentation. For centuries, we thought
the Earth was the center of the universe, until Galileo used
the scientific method to prove otherwise. Universities are
full of those who hope to disprove existing postulates; fame
as a scientist among your peers comes from overturning dogma.
In this way, the progressive refinement of science has brought
us modern health care, abundant food, and many of the conveniences
of daily life.
We all trust science when we read the daily weather forecast
and decide what to wear to work. Later in the day, we may
change our understanding of reality, but as we leave for
work, we act with the best knowledge we have at the moment.
That knowledge is informed by the science of meteorology
and its models of how the weather system works. Like all
science, meteorology undergoes constant scrutiny and refinement.
Its predictions will improve with time, but for the moment,
only a rain dance offers an alternative.
Charles Darwin proposed his theory of evolution more than
150 years ago and, to date, no better explanation for the
history of life on Earth has appeared in the scientific literature.
More than a century ago, the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius
suggested that the radiative properties of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere would warm the Earth. We are now living
in that reality, and the scientific community has achieved
unprecedented consensus on the fate of a planet with rising
CO2 in its atmosphere.
Certainly, if new science provided better explanations for
the appearance and disappearance of the diverse forms of
life during Earth's history or for the processes that control
the temperature of our planet, the scientific world would
embrace them. But countless scholars who have tried to leave
their mark on the fields of evolution and atmospheric physics
have failed to provide alternative explanations of substance.
I marvel, then, that those who simply wish the world worked
otherwise can prevail in the public-policy world. The contrarians
of evolution and global warming do not muster science to
support their views; rather, they trust their beliefs to
be true even in the face of science. Unfortunately, speaking
against the uninformed faith of the contrarians has now reduced
scientists to the status of a special-interest group in the
halls of government.
Nowhere is this more apparent than in the current debate
about climate change. A vast majority of the scientific community
has achieved consensus about global warming, but a small
ideological minority persists in disrupting the creation
of effective policy--not basing their criticism on science
but using an active program of empty rhetoric to confuse
the issue. One well-known climate scientist has even been
the subject of a congressional inquiry that is a thinly veiled
vendetta against his peer-reviewed findings. Many of these
ideologues have a deep stake in the status quo. Unfortunately,
the longer we wait to limit the emissions of carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere, the less likely it is that we will avoid
the negative impacts of global warming. Management of a planet
does not turn on a dime.
We all are vulnerable to global warming, whether from an
increased exposure to tropical disease, rising sea levels
that may flood a vacation home, or catastrophic crop failures
in the Great Plains. Firm government action to prevent climate
change is as crucial to our future as the prevention of terrorism
and the suppression of nuclear weapons. Whatever policies
we adopt to mitigate climate change must be simple, fair,
and effective. Good science has much to offer to the policy-development
process.
Certainly, some blame for the marginalization of science
rests with scientists themselves, who too frequently have
been reluctant to come outside the Ivory Tower to explain
what they do and why it is important. During the past year,
the Nicholas School published a series of "advertorials" on
environmental issues in The New York Times, which produced
an outcry of dissent from a small number of faculty members,
who felt it was inappropriate for the school to take a stand
on issues of climate change, mercury emissions, and beach
erosion. Each ad, however, was informed by scientific research
in the Nicholas School, often funded by public dollars granted
to its faculty. I believe that for us to sit quietly while
the uninformed determine government policy on major environmental
issues is an unacceptable return on public investment.
Science must not be politicized, but scientists are not advocates
when their expertise informs the political process. While
genomics, nanotechnology, and computer science can often
promise a better world, environmental science frequently
warns us of the dangers that lie ahead. For environmental
scientists, success is often manifest by the forest that
wasn't cut. Healthy humans depend on a healthy planet. Environmental
scientists must teach the importance of preserving natural,
functional ecosystems, and we must be eager to articulate
that message clearly to the general public.
We hope that clear, forceful statements of science from the
Nicholas School and through the new Nicholas Institute--created
this year to foster the translation of environmental science
to policy--will make it easier for those we elect to be true
leaders of government and will return us once again to a
time when sound science informs policy.
Schlesinger, dean of the Nicholas School
of the Environment and Earth Sciences, is James B. Duke Professor
of biogeochemistry.
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